Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and
how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.
Main Topics Covered
- Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of markets
- The case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030
- Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longer
- The key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemployment
- Comparing today’s market to the dot-com era
- Why traditional recession indicators have failed
- How COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronization
- Inflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watching
- Why valuation is a broken signal for stock picking
- The quant factors that matter most today
- ETF factor exposures and hidden risks
- How to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private markets
- Why U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity market
- Key lessons and philosophies for long-term investors